How do I run a nonlinear regression with XLSTAT?

An Excel sheet with both the data and the results can be downloaded by clicking here. The data have come from Ratkowsky D.A. (1983). Nonlinear Regression Modeling. New York, Marcel Dekker and were obtained from the NIST.

Using nonlinear regression, our goal is to see how the dry weight of onions vary with growth time. If it seems intuitive that a 3 parameters logistic regression would be suitable, the model suggested by Ratkowsky is more complex.

2 parameters
Logistic model

3 parameters
Logistic model

4 parameters
Ratkowsky's model

In order to show the capabilities of XLSTAT, and although the 3 parameters logistic model is directly available in XLSTAT, we show in this example how the user can create and add himself new functions to the available functions.

First, as the XLSTAT nonlinear regression does not include the Ratkowsky's model among the preprogrammed functions, we need to write the derivatives of the model for each of the 4 parameters. In the table below, we show the 4 derivatives and their transcription using the XLSTAT conventions: Excel syntax, with "pri" for parameter i and "Xj" for variable j. Note: if a derivative starts with a "-", you need to add a quote ' at the beginning to avoid that Excel detects an error.

Mathematical writing

XLSTAT syntax

(pr3/pr4)*exp(-pr1-pr2*X1)/(1+exp(-pr1-pr2*X1))^(1+1/pr4)

(pr3*X1/pr4)*exp(-pr1-pr2*X1)/(1+exp(-pr1-pr2*X1))^(1+1/pr4)

1/(1+exp(-pr1-pr2*X1))^(1/pr4)

(pr1/pr4^2)*ln(1+exp(-pr1-pr2*X1))/(1+exp(-pr1-pr2*X1))^(1/pr4)

Last, when a function has a complex structure, it is advised that you specify a starting point. In our case, it seems that [0, 0, 725, 1] would be fine. 725 corresponds to the maximum of the dependent variable (Dry weight). The starting point and the derivatives must be vertically entered in Excel. Then, the analysis can start.

After opening XLSTAT, select the XLSTAT/Modeling data/Nonlinear regression command, or click on the corresponding button of the "Modeling Data" toolbar (see below).

Once you've clicked on the button, the nonlinear regression dialog box appears. Select the data on the Excel sheet. The "Dependent variable" (or variable to model, or response variable) is in our case the "Dry weight". The quantitative explanatory variable is the "Time". We want to explain the variability of the "Dry Weight" by the "Time". As we selected the column titles, we left the option "Variable labels" activated.

In the "Options" tab, we select the data that correspond to the starting point, that corresponds to the initial value of each parameter. Note: a header must not be selected here.

Screen shot

In the "Functions" tab, as the Ratkowsky's model is not listed in the "Preprogrammed functions" (on the opposite you can notice the 3 parameters logistic regression is available), we needed to enter the Ratkowsky's model: to add a user defined function, activate the corresponding option, then click on "Add", then enter the function in the "Function: Y =" box. Then we selected the derivatives on the Excel sheet (there is one derivative per parameter). In order to add this function to the user functions library, we clicked on "Save". The function is then automatically added and selected.

The computations begin once you have clicked on the "OK" button. The results will then be displayed.

Interpreting the results of a nonlinear regression

The first table gives basic statistics for the dependant and explanatory variables. The second table (see below) displays the goodness of fit coefficients, including the R² (coefficient of determination), and the SSE (sum of square of errors), the later being the criterion used for the model optimization. The R² corresponds to the % of the variability of the dependant variable (the dry weight) that is explained by the explanatory variable (the time). The closer to 1 the R² is, the better the fit.

In our case, 99% of the variability of the Dry weight is explained by the Time, which is an excellent result.

The next table shows the detailed results for the model parameters. As we can see, the parameter pr3, which initial value vas 725, is equal to 699.64 after the fitting. The standard deviation gives some idea of the reliability of result obtained for each parameter. The value of the parameter pr4 being close 1, one can imagine that a 3 parameters logistic regression would give an almost as good result, a hypothesis that you can easily test as this function is available in the preprogrammed functions list.

The equation of the model is displayed and can easily be reused in Excel.

nlin41.gif

The next table (see the Excel sheet) shows the analysis of residuals. One can notice that the model is not well fitted for the observations 11 and 14.

The first chart (see below) allows to visualize the data and the fitted curve. The other charts allow to visually analyze the residuals, and are useful when the number of data is big.

As a conclusion, in the context of this analysis and of the selected model, the growth time allows to explain very well the dry weight of an onion.

Click here for other tutorials.

About KCS

Kovach Computing Services (KCS) was founded in 1993 by Dr. Warren Kovach. The company specializes in the development and marketing of inexpensive and easy-to-use statistical software for scientists, as well as in data analysis consulting.

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